The politics of the country is at its peak regarding Bihar assembly elections. New surveys are also coming out on the day of this. Meanwhile, Amitabh Tiwari, founder of ASA India Company, stayed in Bihar for 10 days and tried to understand the situation going on very closely. During this, he maintained his focus on NDA, India alliance and Prashant Kishore’s party Jansuraj. Amitabh Tiwari spoke openly on Bihar’s politics on Bihar.

Meanwhile, the biggest question of this time in Bihar politics is whether Prashant Kishore (PK) party will be able to make a big impact or not. According to the discussion, a section of youth is attracted towards PK, but middle age and senior citizens are still in a position to flicker them. That is, they are just looking at at the moment.

Support Prashant Kishore’s party
According to the current survey, Prashant Kishore’s party is getting about 10-12% support in South Bihar (Bhojpur, Magadh, Munger, Bhagalpur), while this support is reduced to 8-10% in North Bihar (Purnia, Darbhanga, Kosi, Tirhut, Saran). This vote share keeps them in the discussion, but is much lower than 30-35% of the votes required to win a seat.

Impact of Grand Alliance vs NDA PK Factor
If you consider the last election (125 vs. 110 seats) as the basis, then this time there is no hope of major changes in the equation. Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, etc.): Some seats in Magadh and Bhojpur may be reduced, but mild advantage in Munger and Bhagalpur is also possible. NDA (BJP-JDU) has a vote bank larger safe due to the ethnic equation (upper cast, Dalit, EBC). Overall, the biggest disadvantage can be to the Grand Alliance due to the arrival of PK. The reason is clear, whatever voter is angry with the current government, he usually goes towards the Grand Alliance, but due to PK, this vote can be distributed.

Seat equation and role of gardens
Prashant Kishore’s fate will depend to a large extent on how many strong rebel candidates they get from big parties (BJP, JDU, RJD, Congress). If a core voter comes with a rebel PK with a community (eg EBC, Brahmin, Rajput or Mahadalit), then the loss of NDA is also possible, but if we see the net effect, the Grand Alliance will get more shock.

What has changed in the caste equation?
Ethnic equations are always important in elections. In the current picture, the Muslim-Yadav (My vote bank) remains strong with the grand alliance. Upper cast, Dalit, EBC is largely with NDA. Koyri/Kushwaha society may break down a little bit. If the Grand Alliance takes the right candidate, then some part of this class can come towards them.

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